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The price of negative electrode materials for lithium-ion batteries has increased!

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1、 Negative electrode industry updates

Market news: The negative electrode bidding price of Company B this month has increased by 15% compared to the previous month, and the top negative electrodes have a strong willingness to increase in price. The final price has not yet landed.

Since Q2, the production capacity utilization rate of top negative electrode manufacturers has been fully utilized, and the overall utilization rate of the industry is still at a low level, with a clear concentration of market share at the top. Q1B company has already raised prices in a round of bidding, and this increase in bidding price once again confirms that the negative electrode price is currently at the bottom of the industry. In the second half of the year, with the arrival of the peak production season, leading enterprises have expectations of price increases.

Shangtai Technology: Full production in June and July, net profit per ton maintained at over 3k in Q2, and expected price increase for Q3 negative electrode!

Key customers are charging up quickly, and the company's production capacity is fully utilized in the second quarter. The downstream major customers have good demand (70% of which are from Factory C), and the fast charging capacity is fast. Currently, full production can be seen in June, with a high probability of full production in July. The single Lang production capacity is 20000 tons, and it is expected to ship 55000 tons in Q2. The outsourcing scope has also increased slightly, with several hundred tons currently outsourced. In the peak season of the third and fourth quarters, we expect to maintain a high capacity utilization rate in the future, with an annual shipment of 200000 tons.

The impact of electricity prices is controllable, and costs continue to lead peers. Previously, due to the negative electrode price reduction and electricity price increase at the beginning of the year, the market was concerned about the company's profitability and expected a decline in net profit per ton in Q2.

But in reality, the impact of the price reduction has been largely absorbed in the first quarter (with a 10% price reduction), and the net profit per ton remains at 3.8k; In the second quarter, the company mainly digested the impact of electricity prices. Starting from January 1st this year, the company's electricity prices increased by 0.15 yuan to 0.45 yuan, with an estimated cost increase of 1350 yuan based on 9000 kWh of electricity. However, the company achieved cost reduction by avoiding peak electricity consumption, improving power transmission curves, adjusting furnace positions, and other methods. The actual cost only increased by a few yuan, exceeding expectations and leading its peers by at least 2k.

Looking ahead to the whole year, downstream demand will continue to be strong, and the supply and demand pattern will gradually improve. Prices are expected to rise in Q3. In addition, the impact of electricity prices will be digested in Q2, which will be the bottom of profits. Under various cost reduction measures in the future, the net profit per ton is expected to continue to increase. We expect the company to have a net profit attributable to the parent company of 700-900 million yuan in 2024 and 2025, which corresponds to a PE of 17 or 13 times. We suggest paying close attention!

2、 Lithium battery: Negative electrode expected to rise again, sector beta is about to restart

1. Recently, there have been rumors of negative electrode bidding from top battery manufacturers. It is understood that the final result has not yet been finalized, but the relatively accurate information is,

1) Low price orders are no longer taken over by companies.

2) There are companies offering higher prices or those offering lower prices during negotiation, but at least the direction reflects a willingness to support the price. (Source: Institutional Research Notes)

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